FOREX MORNING NEWS
The probability of a Fed rate hike in December has appreciated to 100%, full certainty, in the Fed Funds futures market, strengthening Dollar even before the Fed minutes come later tonight.
The Dollar Index (101.00) is trading in a narrow range of 100.60-101.40 for the last 4 sessions that indicates further sideways movement possible for a couple of sessions more before it rallies again. Targets remain unchanged at 102-104.
Dollar-Yen (111.01) is likewise range bound in 110.40-111.40 after meeting our initial target of 111.35 but it may rise to our higher target/resistance of 112 before any significant correction can set in.
The Pound (1.2420) is stuck in the range of 1.23-1.26 just as expected and this consolidation in the same range may continue for a few more sessions with no clear near term directional bias.
Euro (1.0629) has failed to make any headway till now but as noted yesterday, the long term bearishness may be confirmed only on a break below 1.0550-00. The chances of a sideways consolidation in 1.550-1.0750 has increased a bit but it still remains in wait and watch mode.
The Aussie (0.7426), boosted by Copper (2.548) is getting closer to the resistance of 0.7450 where the bears may return to push it back towards 0.72.
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COMMODITIES MORNING NEWS
Overall commodities look bullish in the near term. There could be some fall in Crude before it can move up again. We need to see how the OPEC meeting turns out.
Gold (1214.51) and Silver (16.72) are almost stable and could possibly see some sideways movement for a few sessions before again moving up towards 1240/50 and 17.00/50 respectively.
Copper (2.5470) could resume its rise towards 2.65-2.70 while immediate support on the daily candle chart holds. This could possibly pull up Aussie from current levels .
Brent (49) and WTI (48.02) have come down a bit possibly due to news that the US crude supplies fell by 1.3mln barrels last week, according to a report by the American Petroleum Institute. Instead the report states a rise in the gasoline inventories by 2.7mln barrels. But with the OPEC meeting next week and doubts from Iran and Iraq we could possibly not see much of downside in Crude.
Crude should rise higher after a small downward correction in the near term. We may expect a fall to 48 and 46 in Brent and WTI respectively before again rising back to 50 and 52 levels.