EUR/USD Daily Fundamental Forecast – April 03, 2017
Last Friday, we saw the end of the quarter and the month end as well and the euro was mixed to end the day. This was caused more due to the mixed nature of the dollar rather than any specific event affecting the euro as such. We generally see some month end flows which brings in a bit of volatility in the EURUSD pair and this month end and quarter end flows helped to push the pair further down and we saw the pair moves towards 1.0650 as of last week.
Euro Likely to Consolidate
Today morning, we see a bit of buying in the euro but this is general correction of the move down lower on Friday rather than buying on any specific news or event. Today is the beginning of a new week and a new trading month as well and a lot of news is scheduled to be released during the course of this week. So we can expect some consolidation with a bearish bias during the course of the day as the market and the traders position themselves for the upcoming week.
As is usual with this pair, the moves in this pair is dominated more by the dollar than by the euro in general and so it is all about the dollar strength as of now. The dollar has been buoyed up by the strong data that we saw from the US last week and this is the reason for the fall in the pair over the last week. If the dollar strength continues for today and also for the rest of the week leading upto to the FOMC meeting minutes, we could see the pair sliding further towards the strong support at 1.05 over the next couple of days.
Looking ahead to the rest of the day, we do not have any major news from the Eurozone but we do have the ISM manufacturing PMI data from the US later on in the day. This is not likely to have much impact, especially considering all the major news scheduled for later in the week but we do expect some consolidation with a bearish bias for the rest of the day.