How to Analyze the Forex Market Technically: Best way to learn and earn from forex trading
Technical analysis is the science or skill of forecasting of the future movements of the price using the past movements and data.
Obviously the past movements cannot guarantee the future movements and so technical analysis is not a hundred percent accurate and surefire forecasting but if you learn the technical analysis properly, you can make more correct predictions and so you will be in profit at the end.
Technical analysis rules, techniques and tools are 99% the same in the stock and forex market. So if you learn technical analysis, you can use it both in stock and forex market.
It is impossible to cover everything about the technical analysis in one article. So here I just try to talk about technical analysis in general but write more detailed articles about it.
If you read my daily forex trading market technical analysis reports, you will see that technical analysis is the main thing that I use in the market analysis.
I do not use indicators in the long time frames like 4 hours, daily and weekly charts because I believe indicators are too delayed to be used on long time frames. They show the signals far after a breakout and a big move happens. So it can be too late to enter to any trade.
In technical analysis we work on the price charts. The price chart is a two dimensional chart. The vertical axis shows the price and the horizontal axis shows the time.
We have different kinds of price charts:
1- Tick chart
2- Line chart
3- Candlestick chart
4- Bar chart
5- Heikin-Ashi chart
6- Kagi chart
7- Renko chart
8- Point & Figure Chart
There are some other kinds of charts but as they are not common, I have not mentioned them in the above list. Even Heikin Ashi, Kagi, Renko and Point & Figure are not very common too but as I like to talk about them because I believe some of you will become interested in using them.
Technical Analysis: How to trade in forex by using technical analysis?
Technical analysis is based on the analysis of the charts. Finding the trends, support and resistance levels and also consolidations like triangles, wedges, pennants, double and triple tops and bottoms, head and shoulders and … can be done through the technical analysis rules and when you can achieve to find these things on your charts, you will be able to predict the next direction and movement and so you can take the proper position.
Technical analysis becomes even more helpful and valuable when you enrich the result with some other tools like candlesticks and Fibonacci levels. You can do your technical analysis on a simple line chart. It will not make any difference because you will find the same trends and formations but when you do in on a candlestick chart and pay enough attention to the candlesticks’ signals, your analysis will be stronger.
One of the underlying tenets of technical analysis is that historical price action predicts future price action. Since the forex is a 24-hour market, there tends to be a large amount of data that can be used to gauge future price activity, thereby increasing the statistical significance of the forecast. This makes it the perfect market for traders that use technical tools, such as trends, charts and indicators. (To learn more, see Introduction to Technical Analysis and Charting Your Way To Better Returns.)
It is important to note that, in general, the interpretation of technical analysis remains the same regardless of the asset being monitored. There are literally hundreds of books dedicated to this field of study, but in this tutorial we will only touch on the basics of why technical analysis is such a popular tool in the forex market.
As the specific techniques of technical analysis are discussed in other tutorials, we will focus on the more forex-specific aspects of technical analysis.
Technical Analysis Discounts Everything; Especially in Forex
Minimal Rate Inconsistency
There are many large players in the forex market, such as hedge funds and large banks, that all have advanced computer systems to constantly monitor any inconsistencies between the different currency pairs. Given these programs, it is rare to see any major inconsistency last longer than a matter of seconds. Many traders turn to forex technical analysis because it presumes that all the factors that influence a price – economic, political, social and psychological – have already been factored into the current exchange rate by the market. With so many investors and so much money exchanging hands each day, the trend and flow of capital is what becomes important, rather than attempting to identify a mispriced rate.
Trend or Range
One of the greatest goals of technical traders in the FX market is to determine whether a given pair will trend in a certain direction, or if it will travel sideways and remain range-bound. The most common method to determine these characteristics is to draw trend lines that connect historical levels that have prevented a rate from heading higher or lower. These levels of support and resistance are used by technical traders to determine whether or not the given trend, or lack of trend, will continue.
Generally, the major currency pairs – such as the EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF and GBP/USD – have shown the greatest characteristics of trend, while the currency pairs that have historically shown a higher probability of becoming range-bound have been the currency crosses (pairs not involving the U.S. dollar). The two charts below show the strong trending nature of USD/JPY in contrast to the range-bound nature of EUR/CHF. It is important for every trader to be aware of the characteristics of trend and range, because they will not only affect what pairs are traded, but also what type of strategy should be used. (To learn more about this subject, see Trading Trend Or Range?)
Technical traders use many different indicators in combination with support and resistance to aid them in predicting the future direction of exchange rates. Again, learning how to interpret various forex technical indicators is a study unto itself and goes beyond the scope of this forex tutorial. If you wish to learn more about this subject, we suggest you read our technical analysis tutorial.
A few indicators that we feel we should mention, due to their popularity, are: Bollinger Bands®, Fibonacci retracement, moving averages, moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and stochastics. These technical tools are rarely used by themselves to generate signals, but rather in conjunction with other indicators and chart patterns.