Market Morning Briefing

COMMODITIES

Gold (1233) has closed at higher levels from a weekly low of 1196. We continue to look for a close above 1240-45 levels in the near term to take fresh long positions. But before that it may spend a few sessions within the 1215-45 region.

Silver (17.46) has tested immediate resistance at 17.47-48 before closing slightly lower. A break above that could take it up to 18.00. Overall we need to wait for confirmation for immediate directional clarity.

Copper (2.67) was almost unchanged and trading within a narrow range of 2.65-72. We will remain bearish while it is trading below 2.70-72.Only a close above 2.72 could negate our short term bearish view.

Brent (51.45) and WTI (48.41) still shows no strong sign of recovering as both of them had registered the intraday low at 51.36 and 48.26, close to our supports of 50 and 47.50 respectively. We will remain bearish while Brent and WTI are trading below 53 and 50 levels.

FOREX

As all the major events are past now, a quiet week can be expected with Dollar remaining weak as no fresh triggers are visible in the near term.

Dollar Index (100.16) remains weak and may see a gradual decline towards 99.00 over the week with the upside limited to 100.70-101.00.

Euro (1.0760) is wandering about listlessly near the major resistance 1.08, which if holds, may push it down to 1.07-1.06. Only a firm break above 1.08 opens up 1.10 but the probability of that stands at not more than 40% right now. The current net short position of the speculators is the smallest since May’16, which may well turn out to be an indicator for a top formation. Must be kept in mind.

Dollar-Yen (112.55) is getting closer to our target/support of 112.00-111.70 which is expected to hold by the speculators as the net short positions continue to pile up. But a break below 111.70 may open up much lower levels of 110.00 and even 108.50-00.

Pound (1.2382) has almost achieved our initial target of 1.2410 with a high of 1.2405 and now requires a rise above 1.2430-40 to extend the rally to 1.26 levels.

Aussie (0.7718) is testing the major resistance area of 0.7750-0.7850. As discussed last week, this long term resistance area is a very significant make or break zone which, if overcome, may determine the path for the next few months but it remains to be seen if Aussie manages a break above 0.7750-0.7850 immediately or not.