XAU/USD closes into the golden ratio of 61.8 percent
In Asia, the price is attempting to break below the 50% mean reversion line, exposing the 61.8 percent Fibo target of $1,850 once more. Following a move into the 50 percent mean reversion level of the hourly bullish impulse highlighted in earlier trading, the gold price is backpedalling further at $1,852, as shown in the technical analysis below. The US dollar has been on the rise since mid-week and has remained steady in Asia, rising higher in the DXY index’s basket of currencies.
The US dollar index rose on Wednesday, erasing earlier losses as investors exited stocks at the same time as the US 10-year auction touched a high yield of 3.03 percent, up from the previous auction’s high of 2.943 percent. The dollar also hit a new two-decade high against the yen, despite the Bank of Japan remaining one of the few global central banks to maintain a dovish approach. Following this, US rates have rallied, with the 10-year presently holding above 3%, bolstering the greenback.
Following warnings from the OECD that the world will pay a high price for the war in Ukraine, gold has been promoted for its safe-haven attributes. “It cut its global growth forecast for this year from 4.5 percent to 3 percent, down from 4.5 percent in December.” This comes after the World Bank altered its growth prediction earlier this week. As the dollar rose, gold gave up some gains late in the day,” according to ANZ Bank analysts.
“While the fighting in Ukraine helped to send the bears packing, the fading of geopolitical risk premia across global assets hasn’t seen this cohort of discretionary traders liquidate their position,” according to analysts at TD Securities. “As a result, the disparity between gold and real rates can be linked to both an excessive rise in real rates as a result of quantitative tightening, as well as the still-significant amount of complacent length maintained in gold, which keeps gold’s prices elevated.”
The focus for the rest of the day will be on the European Central Bank before traders prepare for Friday’s US inflation report. TD Securities analysts believe the EUR/USD has limited potential to advance unless the governor, Christine Lagarde, “commits to a series of 50s,” especially with the Euribor curve trading as it is and US CPI due the next day. For EURUSD to trade lower, the risk/reward ratio is more advantageous.
TDS analysts also believe the ECB will “announce that the APP will terminate within weeks” and “give a strong signal that rate rises will occur in July and September” (October remains a more interesting meeting in this sense). Forecasts show higher inflation and slower growth, reflecting the ECB’s ongoing difficulties. “As a result, gold may be appealing due to its safe-haven features. The precious metal has found some support from investors due to the worsening economic backdrop. Despite a stronger dollar, gold has just climbed past $1,850.