EUR USD | Euro US Dollar News
EUR/USD continues to power forward and has breached the parity line for the first time since 20th September. The euro is red hot, having gained 2.1% this week, as the USD has hit a dump in the road and is lower against all major currencies. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trending at 1.0069, up 1.02%.
The German economy, the largest in the eurozone, continues to show signs of weakness. September PMIs pointed to contraction in manufacturing and business activity, and these are unlikely to rebound as the Ukraine war continues and an energy crisis looms, with winter close by. The Ifo Business Confidence index fell for a fourth straight month in October and Gfk Consumer sentiment, which will be released today, is expected to remain deep in negative territory.
The ECB meets today, with policy makers having to contend not only with a gloomy economic outlook in the eurozone, but also with spiraling inflation, with no sign of a peak. Eurozone CPI jumped to 9.9% in September, up sharply from the 9.1% rise in August. The markets have priced in a supersize 0.75% hike, which would bring the cash rate to 2.0% and investors will be looking for the Bank to declare its commitment to bring inflation back to the 2% target.
A full-point increase remains a slight possibility, given that inflation is close to double-digits. Investors will be monitoring the follow-up press conference, and the euro’s direction today could depend on ECB President Lagarde’s message to the markets. If Lagarde signals that further rate hikes are coming, the euro will likely gain ground.