Economic News

EUR/USD trades below 0.9535 as US dollar recovers

EUR/USD trades below 0.9535 as US dollar recovers

EUR/USD updated another 20 years low last month, lowest at 0.9535. This was followed by a correction, and the pair came close to the equality level on Tuesday, October 04, rising to 0.9999. However, the happiness of the bulls was short, followed by another reversal to the south and the finish line at 0.9737.

The depressed state of the economy against the background of continuing inflation suggests the threat of stagflation in the Eurozone. The increase in energy prices adds to the negative. And it is likely to continue, as the OPEC + countries decided to seriously reduce oil production. Recall that these prices were one of the most powerful triggers for the global wave of inflation. Another negative factor is the proximity of the EU countries to the theater of Russian-Ukrainian military operations, especially since Russian President V. Putin constantly threatens to use nuclear weapons.

On evening of Friday October 07, the votes of the experts were disturbed as half of the analysts say that the pair will continue to move south in the near future, another 30% expect it to move north, and the remaining vote for a sideways trend. Among the trend indictors on D1, 40% are red, 25% are green and 35% are neutral gray. The picture is completely different among the oscillators: all 100% advise to sell the pair.

The final chord of the week was set at 1.1079. According to strategists at ING, the largest banking group in the Netherlands, the current levels of the pound are unstable, given the instability of the bond market, the disturbance of the fiscal situation and the state of the UK current operations account. Therefore, they predict a return of GBP/USD below 1.1000.

Their colleagues from MUFG Bank expect it to fall again to the lows of the last ten days of September. As for the average forecast, the majority of analysts side with the bears. Some think the pound to strengthen, and some have taken a neutral position. The picture is mixed among the trend indicators: 35% are closed red, the same amount is green, and the remaining 30% are gray. The nearest levels and support zones are 1.0985-1.1000, 1.0500-1.0740 and the September 26 low of 1.0350. In case the pair reverses to the north, the bulls will meet resistance at the levels of 1.1230, 1.1400, 1.1470, 1.1720, 1.1800, 1.1960.